Category: Multicriteria Decision Analysis
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Interval Filters for Pre-Selection in Model-Assisted Constrained Pareto Optimization
Michael Emmerich, JYU, Finland, 28.1.2026 When objective and constraint evaluations are expensive (CFD/FEM, digital-twin simulations, etc.), we often rely on Gaussian process regression (Kriging) as a surrogate. A GP does not only predict a mean vector, it also delivers uncertainty. Interpreted component-wise, this uncertainty naturally forms an axis-aligned confidence box in for objectives (and similarly…
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Knee-Deep in the Mud and Climbing Out with a Clean Face
A History-Aware Multiobjective View of Escalation and De-escalation of Commitment We usually expect people to change course after negative feedback. Yet in investment and project settings the opposite is common: decision makers sometimes increase their commitment to a failing course of action. This pattern is known as escalation of commitment (Staw 1976; Staw 1981; Brockner…
Michael Emmerich 